New Electoral-cycle model: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck

The Electoral-cycle model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, you should not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

Trump is currently at 50.2% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Electoral-cycle model Trump's econometric model average is 1.2 percentage points lower.

The Electoral-cycle model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 47.2% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the Electoral-cycle model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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