New Electoral-cycle model: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck
The Electoral-cycle model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, you should not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other econometric models
Trump is currently at 50.2% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Electoral-cycle model Trump's econometric model average is 1.2 percentage points lower.
The Electoral-cycle model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 47.2% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the Electoral-cycle model.