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New Big-issue index model: Clinton and Trump virtually tied


The Big-issue model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 50.6% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 49.4%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of a single index model. Instead of relying on results from single index models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to other index models

If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.7%. In comparison to numbers in the Big-issue index model Clinton's index model average is 3.1 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 2.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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