New Big-issue index model: Clinton and Trump virtually tied
The Big-issue model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 50.6% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 49.4%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of a single index model. Instead of relying on results from single index models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Comparison to other index models
If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.7%. In comparison to numbers in the Big-issue index model Clinton's index model average is 3.1 percentage points better.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 2.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.