Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll results
Of those who responded, 48.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from April 25 to April 27. A total of 800 registered voters responded. If one accounts for the poll's margin of error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, since they often contain substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 57.8% for Clinton and 42.2% for Trump.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 56.0% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. This means that the PollyVote is 1.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is insignificant.