Western NE University published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Western NE University poll results
Of those who answered the question, 62.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 26.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between April 1 and April 10. The sample size was 497 registered voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-4.0 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't be too confident the results of an individual poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 70.5% for Clinton and 29.6% for Trump. On September 12 Clinton obtained only 29.6% in the Western NE University poll and Trump obtained only 0.0%.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 63.8% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 6.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is significant.