Leading indicators model: Clinton with small lead
The Leading indicators model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 52.0% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.0%.
Putting the results in context
Individual models often incorporate large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.8%. In comparison to numbers in the Leading indicators model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.2 percentage points lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. The results of the Leading indicators model for Clinton are thus 0.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.