PPP (D) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from West Virginia were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
PPP (D) poll results
Of those who answered the question, 30.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 57.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between April 29 and May 1. The sample size was 1201 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-2.8 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, since they may contain substantial errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 34.5% for Clinton and 65.5% for Trump. For comparison: 65.5% was obtained by Clinton in the PPP (D) poll on September 12, for Trump this number was only 0.0%.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 62.1% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 3.4 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is significant.