Latest Convention bump model: Trump and Clinton in a dead heat

The Convention bump model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.2% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.8%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they may contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, you should look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.8%. In comparison to numbers in the Convention bump model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.4 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the Convention bump model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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