Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead
The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 86.4% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 13.6%.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, one should rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 91.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 4.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.