The Jérôme & Jérôme model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model forecasts that Clinton and Trump will each collect 50% of the two-party vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, since they may incorporate large biases. Rather than relying on results from single models, one should consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.8%. When compared to the average forecast of other models Clinton performed 0.3 percentage points better in the Jérôme & Jérôme model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.8% and Trump 47.2% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 2.7 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.