Issue-index model: Clinton with clear lead

The Issue-index model is included in the index models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 55.8% for Clinton, and 44.2% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.8%. Relative to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 2 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the Issue-index model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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