Results of a new poll conducted by NBC-WSJ-Marist were spread. The poll asked interviewees from Illinois for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
According to the results, 57.0% of interviewees indicated that they would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 32.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between March 4 and March 10. The sample size was 1968 registered voters.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 64.0% for Clinton and 36.0% for Trump. In the most recent NBC-WSJ-Marist poll on September 12 Clinton received only 36.0%, while Trump received only 0.0%.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 58.3% of the two-party vote in Illinois. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 5.7 points below her polling numbers.