Fiscal model model: Trump is in the lead
The Fiscal model model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.2% for Clinton, and 51.8% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models can contain large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Results compared to other econometric models
Trump currently runs at 50.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1.6 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Fiscal model model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 47.2% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fiscal model model.