Fair model: Trump with clear lead

The Fair model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 44.0% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 56.0%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Fair model Trump's econometric model average is 5.8 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 47.2% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fair model for Trump are thus 8.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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