Emerson poll in Connecticut: Trump behind by 8 points
Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, 48.0% of participants will give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from April 10 to April 11 with 1043 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.0 points. This means that the poll results for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can contain substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 54.6% for Clinton and 45.5% for Trump. In the most recent Emerson poll on September 12 Clinton obtained 58.8%, while Trump obtained only 41.2%.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 57.2% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 2.6 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is insignificant.