DeSart model: Clinton tied with Trump
The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model forecasts that Clinton and Trump will each collect 50% of the two-party vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models may incorporate substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models sees Clinton at 49.8% of the two-party vote. When compared to the average forecast of other models Clinton performed 0 percentage points better in the DeSart model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.8% and Trump 47.2% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 3 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.