DeSart model: Clinton in Kentucky trails by a very clear margin

The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 35.5% of the two-party vote share in Kentucky, while Trump will end up with 64.5%. In comparison, on September 12, Clinton was predicted to gain 64.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 58.3% of the two-party vote in Kentucky. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 6.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Kentucky.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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