Results of a new poll administered by Emerson were spread. The poll asked respondents from Vermont for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
The results show that 47.0% of respondents are going to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 26.0% are going to cast a ballot for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5 among 600 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump. In the latest Emerson poll on September 12 Clinton received only 35.6%, while Trump received only 0.0%.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this deviation is insignificant.