OpinionWorks released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
OpinionWorks poll results
According to the results, 54.0% of respondents intend to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between August 18 and August 30. The sample size was 754 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's error margin of +/-3.6 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, because they often include large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump. In the latest OpinionWorks poll on September 12 Clinton received only 31.7%, while Trump received only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 69.1%. This value is 0.7 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the OpinionWorks poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that Polly's forecast is 3.9 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this difference is significant.