KABC/SurveyUSA released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
The results show that 57.0% of interviewees would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 32.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 8 to September 11. A total of 678 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 64.0% for Clinton and 36.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in California has Clinton at 64.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 0.1 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 61.4% of the two-party vote in California. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is insignificant.