NBC/SurveyMonkey published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
NBC/SurveyMonkey poll results
Of those who responded, 48.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted via Internet from September 5 to September 11, among a random sample of 16220 participants. The margin of error is +/-0.8 points. This means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 52.2% for Clinton and 47.8% for Trump. On August 31 Clinton received 53.3% in the NBC/SurveyMonkey poll and Trump received only 0.0%.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 51.9% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. This value is 0.3 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the NBC/SurveyMonkey poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote. That is, the PollyVote is 0.9 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.