Clinton and Trump virtually tied in latest Lockerbie model

The Lockerbie model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 50.4% for Clinton, and 49.6% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be treated with caution, as they can include large biases. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.8%. Compared to numbers in the Lockerbie model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.6 percentage points lower.

The Lockerbie model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lockerbie model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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