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Clinton and Trump virtually tied in latest 538 (polls-plus) model


The 538 (polls-plus) model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.4% for Clinton, and 48.6% for Trump. In comparison, on September 12 Trump was predicted to achieve 48.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be regarded with caution, since they may contain substantial biases. Instead of relying on results from single models, the best practice is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 49.8% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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