Bio-index model: Clinton with clear lead

The Bio-index model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 59.6% for Clinton, and 40.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, the recommended strategy use combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models has Clinton at 53.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 5.8 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Bio-index index model.

The Bio-index model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. The results of the Bio-index model for Clinton are thus 6.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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