Results of a new poll conducted by Elway were spread. The poll asked participants from Washington for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Elway poll results
The results show that 43.0% of respondents plan to give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 24.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 9 to August 13 with 500 registered voters. The error margin is +/-4.5 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, because they can include substantial biases. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 64.2% for Clinton and 35.8% for Trump. In the latest Elway poll on September 11 Clinton received only 35.8%, while Trump received only 0.0%.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 57.5% of the two-party vote in Washington. Hence, the PollyVote is 6.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.