UPI/CVOTER released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
UPI/CVOTER poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of respondents intend to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 49.0% intend to cast a ballot for businessman Donald Trump.
The Internet poll was in the field between September 5 and September 11. The sample size was 1260 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they can incorporate substantial errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 48.4% for Clinton and 51.6% for Trump. In the latest UPI/CVOTER poll on September 2 Clinton received 51.6%, while Trump received only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Trump currently achieves 48.0% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. In comparison to numbers in the UPI/CVOTER poll Trump's poll average is 3.6 percentage points lower. This margin is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 47.0% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 4.6 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.