Results of a new poll conducted by Emerson were released. The poll asked participants from Vermont for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
Of those who answered the question, 47.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 26.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 2 to September 5 with 600 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't put too much trust in the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump. For comparison: Only 35.6% was gained by Clinton in the Emerson poll on September 11, for Trump this result was only 0.0%.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is insignificant.