Vermont: New Emerson poll has Trump trailing by 21 points

Results of a new poll conducted by Emerson were released. The poll asked participants from Vermont for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Of those who answered the question, 47.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 26.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from September 2 to September 5 with 600 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't put too much trust in the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump. For comparison: Only 35.6% was gained by Clinton in the Emerson poll on September 11, for Trump this result was only 0.0%.

The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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