Vermont: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead
The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 66.5% for Clinton, and 33.5% for Trump in Vermont. In comparison, on September 11, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 33.5% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, we recommend to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 2.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Vermont.