UtahPolicy/Dan Jones poll in Utah: Trump with 9 points lead
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Utah were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones poll results
According to the results, 27.0% of participants are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 36.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from June 8 to June 17. A total of 614 registered voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can contain large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, you should look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 42.9% for Clinton and 57.1% for Trump. In the latest UtahPolicy/Dan Jones poll on September 11 Clinton obtained 50.0%, while Trump obtained only 0.0%.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 60.9% of the two-party vote in Utah. Hence, the PollyVote is 3.8 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.