Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll results
Of those who answered the question, 48.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from April 25 to April 27, among a random sample of 800 registered voters. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't have too much confidence in the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 57.8% for Clinton and 42.2% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 55.9% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. This means that the combined PollyVote is 1.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.