Oregon: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in latest Clout Research (R) poll

Clout Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

Of those who responded, 43.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out between July 9 and July 13. The sample size was 701 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 51.8% for Clinton and 48.2% for Trump.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 58.5% of the two-party vote in Oregon. This means that the combined PollyVote is 6.7 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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