Oregon: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in latest Clout Research (R) poll
Clout Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Clout Research (R) poll results
Of those who responded, 43.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between July 9 and July 13. The sample size was 701 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 51.8% for Clinton and 48.2% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 58.5% of the two-party vote in Oregon. This means that the combined PollyVote is 6.7 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is significant.