New Big-issue index model: Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck
The Big-issue model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.7% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.3%. In comparison, on September 11, Clinton was predicted to collect only 50.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they often contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 54.1% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Big-issue index model Clinton's index model average is 2.4 percentage points higher.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Big-issue model.