New Big-issue index model: Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck

The Big-issue model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.7% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.3%. In comparison, on September 11, Clinton was predicted to collect only 50.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they often contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 54.1% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Big-issue index model Clinton's index model average is 2.4 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Big-issue model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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