New Big-issue index model: Trump and Clinton in a dead heat
The Big-issue model is captured in the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 50.6% for Clinton, and 49.4% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, since they sometimes contain large errors. At least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 3.1 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Big-issue index model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 2.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.