New Big-issue index model: Trump and Clinton in a dead heat

The Big-issue model is captured in the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 50.6% for Clinton, and 49.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, since they sometimes contain large errors. At least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 3.1 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Big-issue index model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 2.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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