New 538 (polls-plus) model: Trump and Clinton virtually tied
The 538 (polls-plus) model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 51.5% for Clinton, and 48.5% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Single models often incorporate substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models sees Clinton at 49.8% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.7 percentage points worse.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.