In the latest update, Polly the parrot predicts that Clinton will end up with 53.0% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.0% for Trump. Polly's component methods widely agree on who will be elected president: Five anticipate a win for Clinton and one anticipates that Trump will win.
Contrary to the PollyVote forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.2%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are expert surveys with a vote share of 53.5% for Clinton. The econometric models present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 49.8% of the vote.
In comparison to historical elections, the Democrats' forecast of 49.8% in econometric models is particularly low. The last time the forecast fell short of that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2004, George W. Bush and John Kerry ran for presidency. At that time, econometric models predicted a vote share of 46.0% for the Democratic candidate John Kerry.