Western NE University published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Western NE University poll results
Of those who responded, 62.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 26.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from April 1 to April 10, among a random sample of 497 registered voters. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-4.0 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 70.5% for Clinton and 29.6% for Trump. In the most recent Western NE University poll on September 11 Clinton obtained only 29.6%, while Trump obtained only 0.0%.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 63.8% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 6.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.