OpinionWorks published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
OpinionWorks poll results
The results show that 54.0% of respondents intend to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% intend to give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 18 to August 30 with 754 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, we recommend to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump. On September 11 Clinton obtained only 31.7% in the OpinionWorks poll and Trump obtained only 0.0%.
Results compared to other polls
Looking at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 69.1%. In comparison to her numbers in the OpinionWorks poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, Polly's prediction is 3.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's error margin.