Latest Issues and Leaders index model: Trump and Clinton in a tossup
The Issues and Leaders model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.5% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.6%. In comparison, on September 11 Trump was still predicted to gain 48.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single index models should be regarded with caution, because they can incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 54.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 2.7 percentage points higher.
The Issues and Leaders model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.