Latest 538 (polls-plus) model: Trump and Clinton virtually tied

The 538 (polls-plus) model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 51.6% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.4%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, one should look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Clinton at 49.8% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.9 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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