Jerome model: Trump trails by a very clear margin

The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 86.4% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 13.6%. In comparison, on September 11, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 13.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, you should not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 91.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 4.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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