Issue-index model shows Clinton in the lead

The Issue-index model is captured in the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 56.6% for Clinton, and 43.4% for Trump. In comparison, on September 11 Trump was still predicted to garner 44.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't be too confident the results of a single index model. At the very least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 54.2%. In comparison to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 2.4 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the Issue-index model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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