Issue-index model: Clinton with clear lead

The Issue-index model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 55.8% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 44.2%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of an individual index model. Rather than relying on results from single index models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

Results compared to other index models

If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.8%. Compared to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 2 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issue-index model for Clinton are thus 3.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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