NBC-WSJ-Marist released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Illinois were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
Of those who answered the question, 57.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 32.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from March 4 to March 10 among 1968 registered voters.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 64.0% for Clinton and 36.0% for Trump. In the latest NBC-WSJ-Marist poll on September 11 Clinton received only 36.0%, while Trump received only 0.0%.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 58.3% of the two-party vote in Illinois. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 5.7 points below her polling numbers.