FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Michigan were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll results
According to the results, 49.0% of participants will give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 39.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 9 to August 10 among 1314 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 55.7% for Clinton and 44.3% for Trump. In the most recent FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll on September 10 Clinton received only 44.3%, while Trump received only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 54.3% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Michigan. In comparison to her numbers in the FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll Clinton's poll average is 1.4 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.4% of the two-party vote in Michigan. This means that Polly's prediction is 1.3 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.