DeSart model in Kansas: Trump with very clear lead

The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 36.0% for Clinton, and 64.0% for Trump in Kansas. In comparison, on September 11, Clinton was predicted to achieve 64.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they often incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 56.7% of the two-party vote in Kansas. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 7.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Kansas.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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