DeSart model: Clinton with very clear lead

The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 91.9% for Clinton, and 8.1% for Trump. In comparison, on September 11 Trump was still predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, you should not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the recommended strategy look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 91.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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