DeSart model: Clinton in West Virginia trails by a very clear margin

The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 33.3% for Clinton, and 66.7% for Trump in West Virginia. In comparison, on September 11 Trump was predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the best practice is to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 62.1% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 4.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in West Virginia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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