DeSart model: Clinton in Kentucky trails by a very clear margin

The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 35.5% for Clinton, and 64.5% for Trump in Kentucky. In comparison, on September 11, Clinton was predicted to win 64.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they may contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 58.3% of the two-party vote in Kentucky. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 6.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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