Clinton leads in Michigan by 5 points in new FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll
Results of a new poll carried out by FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell were released. The poll asked participants from Michigan for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll results
Of those who replied, 47.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between September 6 and September 7. The sample size was 940 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.2 percentage points, which means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 52.8% for Clinton and 47.2% for Trump. On September 11 Clinton obtained 55.7% in the FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll and Trump obtained only 44.3%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 53.3% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Michigan. This value is 0.5 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.3% of the two-party vote in Michigan. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 1.5 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.