California: 26 points lead for Clinton in latest LA Times/USC poll
By Results of a new poll administered by LA Times/USC were announced. The poll asked interviewees from California for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
LA Times/USC poll results
Of those who replied, 56.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 30.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from May 19 to May 31 with 1500 registered voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-2.9 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, one should not be overly confident the results of a single poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 65.1% for Clinton and 34.9% for Trump. In the latest LA Times/USC poll on September 11 Clinton obtained only 34.9%, while Trump obtained only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of California polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 63.4%. This value is 1.8 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the LA Times/USC poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 61.3% of the two-party vote in California. That is, Polly's forecast is 3.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is significant.
