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California: 26 points lead for Clinton in latest LA Times/USC poll


Results of a new poll administered by LA Times/USC were announced. The poll asked interviewees from California for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.

LA Times/USC poll results




Of those who replied, 56.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 30.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from May 19 to May 31 with 1500 registered voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-2.9 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, one should not be overly confident the results of a single poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 65.1% for Clinton and 34.9% for Trump. In the latest LA Times/USC poll on September 11 Clinton obtained only 34.9%, while Trump obtained only 0.0%.

Comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of California polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 63.4%. This value is 1.8 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the LA Times/USC poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 61.3% of the two-party vote in California. That is, Polly's forecast is 3.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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