Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Vermont were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
Of those who responded, 47.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 26.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5, among a random sample of 600 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often incorporate substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is negligible.